中國(guó)的人民幣匯率變動(dòng)對(duì)農(nóng)產(chǎn)品出口的影響 以對(duì)日出口為例【外文翻譯】

1、<p><b>　?。?011屆）</b></p><p>　　本科畢業(yè)設(shè)計(jì)（論文）</p><p><b>　　外文翻譯</b></p><p>　　The Effect of China's RMB Exchange Rate Movement on Its</p><p>　

2、　Agricultural Export: A Case Study of Export to Japan</p><p>　　1 Introduction</p><p>　　Since the reform of Chinese RMB exchange rate formation mechanism in July 2005, Chinese RMB has been in fre

3、quent fluctuations and appreciating gradually. In this context, close attention has been paid to the impact of the RMB exchange rate fluctuations on China's export. Since each industry has its own characteristics, th

4、e exchange rate movements may have different effects on different industries. Therefore,as Klein (1990) pointed out, the impact of real exchange rate fluctuations on exporttrade</p><p>　　hen as for China, wh

5、at is the effect of RMB appreciation and associated risks of</p><p>　　volatility1 on its agricultural export? A study on this issue has important academic and practical significance. On one hand, there are s

6、till no clear-cut theoretical and empiricalconclusions on trade effects of exchange rate fluctuations among the economiccommunity. Moreover, the vast majority studies have probed the trade effects ofexchange rate fluctua

7、tions in developed countries and have neglected the study on thosein developing countries like China. Developing countries have the characteris</p><p>　　Based on the above understanding, this paper, taking C

8、hina’s agricultural exports to Japan as an case, attempts to explain the impact of RMB exchange rate level changes and volatility on China's agricultural exports.</p><p>　　2 Brief literature review</p

9、><p>　　The study on the impact of exchange rate changes on agricultural trade is launched</p><p>　　first by Schuh (1974), which made the fundamental argument that the exchange rate was</p>&

10、lt;p>　　1 Exchange rate volatility may be defined as the risk associated with unexpected movements in the exchange rate(McKenzie, 1999). an omitted significant variable in economic analysis of the U.S. farm sector. Aft

11、er his pioneering research, a considerable amount of researches evaluated quantitatively the impact of nominal and real exchange rate on agricultural trade. In recent years, the representative research results includes S

12、usanti (2001), (2003), Gervais, Larue & Olivier (2004), Mathew, Terry </p><p>　　Some researchers sought the evidence of negative effects of exchange rate movements on agricultural trade in the level of p

13、roducts. From the early investigation of Robert & Richard (1981) on American wheat, cotton and soybean to recent investigation of Jose, Kranti & Koo (2006) and Li & Li(2005) on soybean, the researchers invest

14、igated the impacts of exchange rate movements of a number of countries on their major agricultural trade flows including barley, wheat, pork, cotton, coffee, cocoa, livi</p><p>　　In an era of floating exchan

15、ge rate system, there are conflicting arguments in theory on if the volatility risk of exchange rate impedes international trade: some models find support for the negative hypothesis yet other models have been derived to

16、 support the positive hypothesis. The results of empirical studies which have focused on the exchange volatility are no less confusing but most of them support the negative effects. Sheldon (2003), Gervais, Larue & O

17、livier (2004) etc. indicated that th</p><p>　　Third, developing countries should receive more concern in future studies. There is still a big difference of the exchange rate system between the developing cou

18、ntries and developed countries, and agricultural exports have played a more important role on developing countries’ economic development.</p><p>　　This section will construct a model on the basis of Kawai (1

19、981), Fabiosa (2002), Barkoulas & Baum et al (2002), Dekle & Jeong (2006). The impacts of both exchange rate level changes and the risk of exchange rate volatility will be incorporated into the model.</p>

20、<p>　　Data sources and processing</p><p>　　This paper employs bilateral agricultural exports from China to Japan on a monthly basis from January 2002 to April 2007. Seasonally adjusted real agricultural

21、 export revenue with base month January 2002 equals nominal export revenue in U.S. dollar deflated by the consumer price index (CPI) of the U.S. and the export price index. CPI comes from the International Financial Stat

22、istics and Direction of Trade of the IMF, nominal export revenue and the export price index from the Monthly Statistical </p><p>　　The monthly average of bilateral nominal exchange rate, defined as the RMB p

23、rice of the Japan yen, is calculated based on the bilateral nominal exchange rate of RMB against the U.S. dollar and the Japan yen against the U.S. dollar. The data come from ERS of the United States Department of Agricu

24、lture. The exchange rate volatility is calculated by GARCH(1,1) model. Foreign price level equals the CPI of Japan from the Statistics Bureau of the Ministry of International Affairs and Communications of</p><

25、p>　　中國(guó)的人民幣匯率變動(dòng)對(duì)農(nóng)產(chǎn)品出口的影響 以對(duì)日出口為例</p><p>　　摘要：本文試圖研究中國(guó)人民幣匯率變動(dòng)和農(nóng)業(yè)出口波動(dòng)之間的關(guān)系，文中構(gòu)造了一種模型來(lái)分析人民幣匯率變動(dòng)對(duì)農(nóng)產(chǎn)品出口面臨兩個(gè)約束，包括中國(guó)特定的匯率制度和技術(shù)性貿(mào)易壁壘的影響 / SPS 的農(nóng)業(yè)貿(mào)易。人民幣匯率變動(dòng)的貿(mào)易凈額影響依賴于匯率水平比較的模型顯示更改 （升值或貶值) 的影響和匯率風(fēng)險(xiǎn)影響。中國(guó)農(nóng)產(chǎn)品出口以日本為例，這份

26、文件是一個(gè)實(shí)證的考試。GARCH (1，1) 模型被指定為衡量匯率波動(dòng)及日常生活活動(dòng)能力結(jié)構(gòu)中斷虛擬變量回歸估計(jì)基于結(jié)構(gòu)中斷單位根測(cè)試的結(jié)果。結(jié)果顯示人民幣對(duì)日元貶值將促進(jìn)出口增長(zhǎng)，同時(shí)阻礙出口，和匯率波動(dòng)積極促進(jìn)農(nóng)產(chǎn)品出口到日本。出口對(duì)匯率波動(dòng)的影響卻比導(dǎo)致一個(gè)負(fù)面的凈影響出口的匯率水平的小得多。此外討論了實(shí)證結(jié)果中所涉及的政策問(wèn)題。</p><p>　　關(guān)鍵字： 交換率 ；農(nóng)業(yè)出口 ；中國(guó)</p>

27、<p><b>　　引言</b></p><p>　　人命比匯率形成機(jī)制的改革在2005年7月一直頻繁波動(dòng)。在這種情況下關(guān)注人民幣匯率變動(dòng)對(duì)農(nóng)產(chǎn)品出口的影響。每個(gè)行業(yè)都有自身的特點(diǎn)，匯率的變動(dòng)對(duì)不同行業(yè)也有著不同的影響。因此，如 · 克萊因 (1990 年) 實(shí)際匯率波動(dòng)對(duì)出口貿(mào)易的影響必須進(jìn)一步追究到商品級(jí)別中。一般來(lái)說(shuō)，與普通農(nóng)產(chǎn)品制成品相比，它具有一種初始成本較

28、低并需要長(zhǎng)期合同投資的特殊的行業(yè)性質(zhì)。人們普遍承認(rèn)匯率變動(dòng)對(duì)農(nóng)產(chǎn)品貿(mào)易的影響是不同制成品貿(mào)易。謝科技 McCorriston （2002 年） 確認(rèn)實(shí)際匯率的不確定性與其它行業(yè)相比，在農(nóng)業(yè)貿(mào)易上有更大的負(fù)面影響。然而對(duì)中國(guó)來(lái)說(shuō)，在借鑒什么是 volatility1時(shí)研究人民幣升值對(duì)農(nóng)產(chǎn)品出口有什么影響。這一問(wèn)題的研究有重要的學(xué)術(shù)和現(xiàn)實(shí)意義。然而現(xiàn)在任然沒(méi)有明確的理論與實(shí)證說(shuō)明匯率波動(dòng)對(duì)貿(mào)易的影響，此外絕大多數(shù)研究只探測(cè)了匯率波動(dòng)在發(fā)達(dá)國(guó)

29、家中對(duì)貿(mào)易的影響，而忽視了對(duì)中國(guó)這樣的發(fā)展中國(guó)家的的研究。發(fā)展中國(guó)家與發(fā)達(dá)國(guó)家有不同的匯率制度，健全的外匯期貨市場(chǎng)，缺乏有效的金融衍生工具受到出口商的重要限制等。在中國(guó)，有兩個(gè)重要的制約因數(shù)：第一，中國(guó)運(yùn)行特定的外匯管理系統(tǒng) ；第二，中國(guó)農(nóng)產(chǎn)品</p><p><b>　　二 文獻(xiàn)回顧</b></p><p>　　匯率變化對(duì)農(nóng)產(chǎn)品貿(mào)易的影響研究是第一次發(fā)人起達(dá)爾 （1

30、974 年） 作出根本的匯率是 1 匯率波動(dòng)可能被定義為與匯率 （1999 McKenzie) 意外運(yùn)動(dòng)相關(guān)的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)說(shuō)法。美國(guó)農(nóng)業(yè)部門(mén)的經(jīng)濟(jì)分析中省略了重要變量。他開(kāi)拓的研究后大量研究的定量評(píng)估名義及實(shí)質(zhì)匯率對(duì)農(nóng)產(chǎn)品貿(mào)易的影響。近幾年的代表性研究成果包括奧利維耶熱爾韋，Larue 科技 · （2004 年） （2003 年） （2001 年） Susanti 馬修 ·，特科技 Agapi （2006） 等 … …不同的

31、實(shí)證方法和匯率變量被使用在這些研究中，達(dá)到共識(shí)： 匯率波動(dòng)的影響大大妨礙了農(nóng)業(yè)貿(mào)易流動(dòng)，并與其他部門(mén)相比，這種負(fù)面影響是更明顯。一些實(shí)證文獻(xiàn)比較不同的匯率變化對(duì)農(nóng)業(yè)部門(mén)和其他部門(mén)。起，謝科技 McCorriston （2002 年） 和謝 （2003 年） 顯示不同的匯率變化影響機(jī)械、 化工、 其他制造業(yè)和農(nóng)業(yè)。與其他部門(mén)相比，對(duì)農(nóng)產(chǎn)品貿(mào)易的負(fù)面影響，遠(yuǎn)比貿(mào)易總額或其他任何特定的部門(mén)研究。唐納德，毛里西奧科技 Bittencourt 報(bào)

32、 (2005 年) 發(fā)現(xiàn)不同部門(mén)間的匯率波動(dòng)的影響，對(duì)農(nóng)產(chǎn)品貿(mào)易大大不利。一些文獻(xiàn)只檢</p><p><b>　　三 數(shù)據(jù)來(lái)源和處理</b></p><p>　　本文采用雙邊農(nóng)業(yè)出口從中國(guó)到日本從 2002 年 1 月至 2007 年 4 月的每月基礎(chǔ)上。經(jīng)季節(jié)性調(diào)整的真正農(nóng)業(yè)出口收入基本月 2002 年 1 月等于名義出口收入美元，出口價(jià)格指數(shù)與美國(guó)的消費(fèi)價(jià)格指數(shù)

33、 (CPI) 的冷遇。消費(fèi)物價(jià)指數(shù)是來(lái)自國(guó)際金融統(tǒng)計(jì)和方向的貿(mào)易，國(guó)際貨幣基金組織、 名義出口收入和出口價(jià)格指數(shù)從每月統(tǒng)計(jì)報(bào)告對(duì)中國(guó)農(nóng)業(yè)的導(dǎo)入和導(dǎo)出?；陔p邊名義匯率的人民幣對(duì)美元和日本日元兌美元計(jì)算的雙邊名義匯率計(jì)算定義為在日本日?qǐng)A匯價(jià)人民幣價(jià)格平均每月。數(shù)據(jù)來(lái)自美國(guó)農(nóng)業(yè)部的雇員再培訓(xùn)計(jì)劃。GARCH(1,1) 模型計(jì)算方法是匯率波動(dòng)。外國(guó)的價(jià)格水平等于日本綜合統(tǒng)計(jì)科國(guó)際事務(wù)與日本通信。外國(guó)的需求相當(dāng)于日本每月工業(yè)生產(chǎn)指數(shù)從，Euro